Jobs Will Return

Per Farhad Manjoo:

Here’s my theory: Since returning to Apple in 1996, Jobs has pushed the company to achieve one of his long-held goals—to turn computers into mainstream appliances as ubiquitous and easy-to-use as televisions, toasters, and food processors. He has been stunningly successful in achieving that vision. And now he’s probably done. The tech world, today, looks more or less exactly like what Steve Jobs has always said the tech world should look like, and Apple is one of the most valuable companies in that universe. What more is there left for Jobs to do?

This is preposterous. This assumes that Steve Jobs is a “normal” person, one that’s comfortable with setting some career goals, exceeding them and then riding into the sunset. At what point in Jobs’ career has he ever given the indication that he’s been ready to rest on his laurels?

Furthermore, the idea that there’s nothing left to do in technology to fulfill his vision is as shortsighted as Bill Gates’ famous quote about 640 kilobytes of storage being enough for anybody. Apple’s product line will continue to evolve as technological leaps enable them to solve even more problems that you and I never knew we had.

How many of you, in 2005, thought you needed to carry the whole internet with you wherever you went? How many of you, in 2000, thought you’d ever want to carry more than a half-dozen CDs’ worth of music with you at a time?  How many of you, in 1995, would’ve ever considered storing your pictures on your computer or editing your home movies?

Technology evolves constantly. Apple’s particular talent is in taking these evolutionary leaps and repackaging them into revolutionary leaps.  Mobile processors had been getting better for years. Flash storage had been getting smaller and cheaper, capacitative screens had been getting more accurate and gaining resolution, etc.  But none of these facts really mattered until Apple took advantage of them to create the first iPhone.  The same will continue to be true moving forward.

So hopefully we can agree that there is plenty of work left for Apple to do, and that there always will be.  Some of these tasks are, in fact, clear already.  The first is not particularly tech-related, but something that only Apple can accomplish: the salvation of the print media.

For the past decade, print media has been increasingly unable to charge for their content while watching costs spiral. News reporting has fallen in quality as layoffs hit newsrooms, causing an accelerated death spiral in professional journalism.  This is, from a business perspective, not that different from what plagued the music industry from the late 90s until the mid-2000s.  Until iTunes came around, no payment gateway had proven popular, convenient and secure enough to cause people to purchase their music online, rather than download it illegally.  iTunes proved that regular folks are still happy to pay for their music, so long as the quality is at least as good as what they can get for free, and so long as it’s markedly easier to do so than to go the way of Blackbeard.

A similar trend worked its way through television, although the sense of ownership people have over TV episodes is less important than it is over music. So, we saw that market split between pay-and-take-it-with-you, a la iTunes, and watch-commercials-but-have-TV-on-demand, a la Hulu.

 People underestimate the level to which Apple has also affected the movie industry, because they only look at direct downloads via iTunes. This doesn’t take into account the digital download codes and discs now packaged with most Blu-Rays and some DVDs. In my book, nothing served to accelerate the growth of Blu-Ray more than the studios throwing in a free portable copy, more often than not synchronized via iTunes to an Apple device.

So, print media is next.  iPad is the best news-reading device made since the introduction of paper, and the first platform uniquely suited to demand a premium.  I absolutely believe that people will pay for access to news so long as it includes exclusives like interactive timelines, side-along video features, access to archives, extended author and editor notes, etc.  The key is to make it convenient and delightful. iPad’s integration with iTunes as a payment gateway takes care of the former, and the iPad’s very essence takes care of the latter.

The same goes for books, and I don’t mean the current iteration of the iBookStore. Today’s eBooks are quaint, little more than a PDF file.  The future of digital publishing is in interactivity.  We see this already manifesting in children’s books and textbooks for iPad, but this same technology can and will be exploited for books of all kinds in the years to come. Combine all of this with the fact that Apple’s mobile devices continue to become better as reading devices, by way of higher-resolution screens and extended battery life, and it’s clear that Apple has secured the future of digital print.

Apple’s salvation of print media will probably be the story of 2011 for the company.  But looking farther into the future, so much more remains. The current iteration of the Apple TV, while better than the last, remains a joke compared to what it could be.  “Convergence” is a mythical concept that has been chased by most electronics companies for the last 20 years, but it’s almost at hand. TV screens are getting smarter, but not in ways that make it particularly easy to use. Microsoft has it right with their Kinect peripheral for Xbox 360, so far as they understand that a hand-held remote is no longer the most effective means with which to interact with a big screen at a distance. But Kinect requires a 360 and doesn’t function with the other boxes people have connected to their TVs.  Apple will be able to fix this, as soon as they are able to secure deals to distribute live television in addition to their current iTunes library of content. Apple TV will likely evolve into a family of actual televisions, as well as a set-top box with a gesture recognition sensor for non-Apple TVs.

After “fixing” TV and print media, Apple may well run out of obvious issues to focus on.  My suspicion is that they will then turn more fully to wearable technology. They’ve already shown their interest in this market, by way of Nike+, armband accessories for iPods, etc.  I expect them to define the future of wearable tech in a way not seen to this point outside of Stark Industries. Partnering with an automotive manufacturer to improve the driving experience would not surprise me, either.

The point is, Jobs is not done, because Apple’s not done.  It’s not a matter of whether Apple needs Jobs to do these things; outside of the negotiations room and initial presentations to the public, they probably don’t. Jobs won’t leave Apple so long as he has a breath left in him, because he believes that tomorrow is always a day away, that great things can always be made better and that the relentless march of innovation would lose its rhythm without Apple there to lead.

Compare the technology of 1988 with the technology of 1998. I would argue that, with the exception of the web browser, almost all other technological evolution served only to refine the earlier vision of the late 80s, making UIs a little easier, computers a lot faster, allowing them to store more data, etc.  Now compare the technology of 1998 to 2008, when the iPhone 3G and App Store hit the market.  Think about all the ways that technology is remarkably different than it was ten or twelve years ago.  That’s the difference between having a strong Apple in the marketplace and having an Apple struggling to remain solvent.

No, Jobs won’t leave. There’s still too much to be done, and, it should appear, even less time in which to do it than he’d like.  He’ll be back.

Casey Ayers

President, MegatonApps, LLC

Bringing EasyMinder to Life

Lisa Hendricks was frustrated.  As a mother of three and successful entrepreneur in Daytona, Fla., she always found herself strapped for time.  Like many of us, she’d often fall prey to the distractions of the day, only to realize when she returned home that she forgot to pick up those few critical grocery items on the way.  It was, Lisa said, “A regularly aggravating occurrence.”

Lisa and her fiancé, Jack, purchased their first iPhones last spring and immediately began reaping the benefits of upgrading from a more basic handset.  Lisa used her iPhone to check email, browse the web and keep her contacts in order more effectively than on her old phone, but the feature that intrigued her most was the iPhone’s built-in GPS capabilities.  “I thought it was really cool seeing myself on the map going towards my destination,” Lisa said.  She also dove headfirst into the App Store.  In her first week with an iPhone, Lisa accounted for more than 50 of the over five billion apps that users have downloaded to Apple’s mobile platforms since the App Store launched in July 2008.

After using her iPhone for about a month, Lisa’s predilection for the gadget’s mapping capabilities, her frustration with forgetting errands and her voracious appetite for new mobile apps collided in the form of a simple idea: Couldn’t an app be made that would let users easily build a shopping list and then remind them when they were passing by a store?  She told Jack about her idea, and he agreed that such an app would be useful.  Lisa browsed through the App Store, and was surprised to find that, even though there were more than 150,000 apps available, none of them seemed to accomplish this.

Convinced she was on to something, Lisa set out to find an app developer that could help bring her idea to life. “I am always looking for the chance to grow and improve. This just seemed like a great business opportunity, and I really like the idea of working with technology,” she said.  After a bit more research, Lisa discovered an app development studio in nearby Jacksonville and gave them a call.

“Oddly enough, I was visiting my parents in Orlando, out on their boat, feeding some wild goats that lived on a nearby island, when my phone first rang.  I was going to let it go to voicemail since it wasn’t a great time to take a business call, but I didn’t recognize the area code and was curious to see who it was,” said Casey Ayers, co-founder of MegatonApps.  “Lisa was wary to share many details over the phone, and we’ve run into plenty of individuals that think that they’ve come across the next big thing when it’s already been done.  I would be driving through Daytona on my way back to Jacksonville in a few days, though, so I decided to take a meeting and learn a bit more.”

Lisa and Jack met with Casey a few days later to share their idea.  Casey saw the potential, but unlike Lisa and Jack, was unsurprised that it hadn’t been attempted by anyone else to that point.  “Apple had just unveiled some of the new features that they’d be releasing in the fourth version of the iPhone’s operating system.  A couple of these features were absolutely essential for an app like this, especially the multitasking features,” explained Casey.  “In the past, an app like this would have to be left open constantly to work. Now, users can be alerted when passing by the store even if the app isn’t active.”

After several months of work designing and developing the app, Lisa’s dream is coming to life.  The app, called Easyminder, is available now for just $2.99 on the Apple App Store.  Users can easily add items to a list, and then tag that list to a geographic location.  A friendly reminder chime will sound when the user comes within a distance to the location they specify, ranging from 500 feet to 20 miles.  Users can even set a due date that syncs to the iPhone’s system calendar.  It’s easy to check off items, add new lists or save old lists to use again for items users pick up regularly. Users can also email lists to friends or family, a feature that Lisa wanted so she could send reminders to Jack.

“Working with Lisa and bringing her concept to life has been rewarding.  We’ve all had a spark of genius at some point, but few people have the persistence to follow through like she has,” said Casey.  “The best apps make people’s lives easier or a little more fun in a simple way.  We hope that’s what we’ve accomplished here.”

To purchase the app and learn more, click here.

Apple's App Store Turnabout

By now, you’ve probably heard the week’s big news: Apple reversed their previously held position regarding the use of third-party software development tools like Adobe’s Flash for the development of iPhone apps, openly published their App Store Review Guidelines for the first time and toned down some previously strong language in the developer agreement regarding what advertising programs developers could use.  We thought we’d share our thoughts on each of these developments, as well as what we think it means for the platform and the mobile ecosystem as a whole.

Third-Party Development Tools

We actually supported Apple’s original decision to disallow the use of Flash as a development tool for iPhone apps.  While Steve Jobs’s open letter regarding Flash, published in April 2010, was filled with some of the bluster and absolutism that the CEO is famous for, he also made a few very reasonable points about the liability of allowing intermediary toolsets. Chief among them:

We know from painful experience that letting a third party layer of software come between the platform and the developer ultimately results in sub-standard apps and hinders the enhancement and progress of the platform. If developers grow dependent on third party development libraries and tools, they can only take advantage of platform enhancements if and when the third party chooses to adopt the new features. We cannot be at the mercy of a third party deciding if and when they will make our enhancements available to our developers.

You can look at the iPhone 4’s Retina Display as one example of this.  Apps created using Apple’s Xcode toolset automatically benefitted in many ways from the dramatically enhanced resolution capability of the new iPhone’s display.  System toolbars, text, standard buttons, and more were automatically “up-rezed”.  Developers would still need to change any custom icons or other art in their apps using an update, but even this was a simple process for most non-game apps.  If an app is developed using a separate toolset, however, such as Flash or any other, Apple can’t ensure that apps will immediately benefit from new features they want to roll out in hardware or software.

For example, GameSalad is a great third-party development system for making iPhone games.  However, it does not currently support any multiplayer gaming, nor does it support Game Center from Apple.  Support for iAds were only recently added, and only to select paid tiers of GameSalad’s service.  These kind of complications will always be inherent to Apple’s secret development process, where they don’t provide many months’ worth of lead time on product announcements.

At the same time, we expect this announcement will help spur a new wave of development tools that make constructing apps that work for all of the major platforms, including Android, webOS and iOS, a lot easier.  Certainly, the reach of these apps will be limited to the portion of the “features” Venn Diagram that all of the platforms share, but for many non-specialized apps, this may be enough.  We still believe that the best results can be achieved by using the tools made specially for any particular platform, but can certainly envision scenarios where the benefits of cross-platform development far outweigh the loss of fidelity that comes with using more universal tools.

App Store Guidelines

This is a huge step, and helps to allay many of the concerns that we share with clients when discussing the risks of app development, and that we have previously shared regarding our experience with Multitaskers, our productivity toolkit for iPad. The reality is, many of these guidelines have been in place since the App Store was first opened. The problem has been that figuring out these guidelines has been a lot like walking across a minefield: by the time you discover there’s a problem, it’s probably too late.  Openly sharing their guidelines takes a lot of the roulette element out of the app development process. And while Apple retains the right to reject any app for any reason for publication to the App Store, having more concrete rules to live by provides a critical boost of confidence to app developers and companies and entrepreneurs that want to bring their product or service to iOS platforms.

We can’t mention these guidelines, of course, without noting the hilariously frank introduction session.  It’s easy to imagine Steve Jobs pacing back and forth, more than a bit irritated, as he dictated this passage word for word to an employee who wouldn’t dare change it.  Can you imagine Microsoft or Google stating the following as official company policy?:

We have over 250,000 apps in the App Store. We don’t need any more Fart apps. If your app doesn’t do something useful or provide some form of lasting entertainment, it may not be accepted.

There’s no doubt that developing for Apple platforms means having to cope with a very particular, and often mercurial, mentality.  But there’s also no doubt that this same mentality leads Apple to relentlessly create truly amazing hardware from which developers and users benefit.  If it’s now Apple’s intention to think the same way they always have, but simply communicate that more clearly and transparently to developers and customers, then great.  We may not always be happy with their thought process, but there will be little doubt that they act fairly, within the rules that they construct.

Advertising Support

We think iAd is a great platform for our clients to use if they choose to integrate advertising. The quality of the ads, as well as the money generated from them, appears to be head and shoulders above other platforms at the current time. But that doesn’t mean that iAd should be the exclusive choice out there; competition improves just about anything, and certainly advertising is included.  What we disliked most about the previous policy is how clearly it was meant to target AdMob, which was acquired by Google after Apple had reportedly bid on AdMob themselves.  The revised policy ensures that information collected by advertising protocols won’t compromise the privacy and security of end users while also providing developers with greater freedom of choice in their monetization solutions.

What This Means for the Platform and the Market

Why Apple would suddenly make so many drastic changes after such a prolonged outcry from developers and the public is far from clear.  Many have speculated that they were facing a challenge from the FTC or Department of Justice for anticompetitive practices, and that these changes may have been enough to appease the regulatory bodies.  We think this theory has a lot of merit.  Perhaps Apple finally decided to implement these changes of their own volition.  

In any case, there’s no doubt that these changes are an extremely positive sign for the future of iOS devices.  The biggest liability of iOS development up to now has not been the limits of the hardware, software restrictions placed on devices arbitrarily by individual wireless carriers, an incomplete development toolset or a small userbase.  In fact, Apple’s iPhone and iPad lead the market in each of these areas. The biggest liability has been the opaque nature of the final step to market: everything has been perfectly clear until the last moment, when the difference between a green light or a red light on a status page could mean the difference between months of work laid to waste and overnight success.

We believe that these steps toward liberating the development and approval process will help Apple to maintain the lead that their hardware and software superiority naturally afford them, and further strengthens our confidence that iPhone, iPod Touch and iPad will remain the premiere mobile app platforms for the foreseeable future.

The Threat from Cupertino

Casey wrote a piece for Kombo.com regarding Apple’s increasing movement into the portable gaming space, and how it affects Nintendo.  Highlights below, full article available here.

The reality is that Apple’s mobile platforms all better meet the demands of mainstream gamers than Nintendo’s DS models. Apple’s devices are miles ahead of Nintendo’s when it comes to multifunctionality. It’s just not a fair fight to compare a DSi to an iPod Touch when it comes to web browsing, listening to music or accomplishing other, non-gaming tasks. The majority of the DSi’s new features were meant to answer these deficiencies, and they did so poorly. 

Nintendo must view Apple as a legitimate threat to its long-term primacy in the portable market, or face certain peril. As it stands, iPhone is a technically superior platform with a compelling user interface and an unbeaten software distribution system. It’s also vastly more capable for non-gaming tasks. The 3DS needs to not just be as compelling, but much more compelling than the forthcoming iPhone update in order to defend the crown.

This is the danger Nintendo accepted when choosing the “mainstream” road in this generation. While incredibly lucrative, the mainstream is also liable to jump off one bandwagon and onto another quickly. Apple currently holds all of the trump cards that Nintendo played just a few years back with their positioning of the DS and the Wii. To write off Apple in this market is just as deadly as it was to write them off in the music, phone and now eBook markets. Apple understands content, and has created devices that make exploring it a joyful experience. 

Whether Mr. Fils-Aime wants to admit it or not, every minute spent playing a game on an iPhone is one less minute with a Nintendo product. And by all accounts, time is running short.

We Speak with MSNBC About Apple vs. Microsoft

MegatonApps president Casey Ayers sat down recently with MSNBC.com’s Bill Briggs to share his thoughts regarding the differences between Microsoft and Apple at this critical inflection point in the history of both companies.  You can find the full article here. A few excerpts follow below:

“The difference between the two companies is that Apple has been fearless about transformational change while Microsoft has been reluctant to leave its past behind,” said Casey Ayers, president of MegatonApps in Jacksonville, Fla. His company soon will release its first iPad app, “Multitaskers” which includes a calculator, ruler, lantern, stopwatch and five more functions.

“Microsoft has always been loath to change and risk alienating some of its customers, but its inability to leave the past behind has left their product line bloated and dysfunctional,” Ayers said. “Yet iPhone completely changed the mobile space forever. Apple doesn’t blink at making unpopular decisions if it believes they will result in a better end product. … It’s just a matter of time now before Apple blows past Microsoft’s market cap.”

So while Apple cheered its opening weekend of iPad sales, what wish Microsoft should have made when it blew out its birthday candles Sunday?

“More than anything, Microsoft’s birthday wish should be for fearless leadership,” said app maker Ayers. “Without someone at the top who feels an urgency to constantly innovate in meaningful ways, Microsoft will shrink and become less relevant with each birthday to come.”

A Lesson in Quality

In this video feature, we talk about what designing quality iPhone experiences means by illustrating the issues with the recently-released Caesar’s Palace iPhone app and giving viewers an inside look at how MegatonApps designed a concept for CityCenter Las Vegas with these topics in mind.

"One More Thing"

Like us, you almost certainly heard the news from San Francisco on the morning of January 27th. Steve Jobs and Apple, Inc. unveiled their newest product category, the iPad, to a packed house of journalists, bloggers, developers and Apple employees.  iPad picks up where iPhone left off.  It employs the same philosophies as its smaller brother and even runs the same operating system. With the 10” screen area, though, comes room for a faster chipset, a powerful battery, several wireless options and a large solid state disk for storage.  iPad can run existing iPhone apps, has a full-featured web browser, a new eBook store and reader, great photo browsing and much more. Anything the iPhone does, iPad does better. Many of the tasks people use laptops for on a daily basis can be accomplished on iPad more easily, as well.

But.

The feeling in the air on the morning of the announcement was simply electric. Not just in at the Yerba Buena Center for the Performing Arts, where the event took place, but around the world. An almost indescribable amount of excitement had been built for the Apple Tablet announcement, and all of it without anyone at Apple publicly saying one word about the device prior to the event. Despite the device’s great features, almost unbelievably low starting price point and its imminent release date, something was missing.

The crowd was waiting for the famous Steve Jobs line: One More Thing.  That’s the line that ushered in the PowerBook G4, the PowerMac G5, the Airport wireless base station, the wireless iTunes Store, the iPod Touch and so many other exciting announcements. Up until the very last second of the iPad announcement event, those watching from home and in the audience waited for those words.

But they never came.

Afterward, we began thinking over this missing piece. What was the audience waiting for? Was there supposed to be some universal truth exposed, some absolutely revolutionary interface unfurled? Perhaps so. But those are things that aren’t terribly reasonable to expect, and the absent element seemed rather tangible. The reailty is that we’ve been spoiled by iPhone. Its announcement was a truly historic event, one that will be remembered long after the last of its many knockoffs is dropped off at the landfill. But we so easily forget that when iPhone was announced, there was simply no third party development, at all.  The phone accomplished three main things, as laid out by Mr. Jobs in his opening statements: it was a phone, an iPod and an Internet communications device. Even Web Apps weren’t formally introduced for another half a year, and the App Store a full year later.

It’s since the App Store opened that iPhone’s true potential has been unleashed. When we think back to the iPhone announcement, we see not the device that was presented then, but the device that we use now. That’s the standard that iPad was held against, and that’s why a certain something seemed to be lacking.

That “something” was the apps.  The demonstrations by Major League Baseball, the New York Times and others helped provide the briefest glimpse into the true potential of this product. The power of iPad isn’t in what comes on it, but in what can be made for it later.  It is when products and services, like those of our clients, are reshaped and molded into use on this versatile platform that its true value will be known.

We, together, are the One More Thing. Although it’s slightly less dramatic than Mr. Jobs simply pulling a curtain back, it’s a far sweeter prize in the end. The power is in our hands. Although its name may be iPad, we’ll always think of it as one of its other rumored names: Canvas. Some say there’s nothing more terrifying or thrilling than a blank piece of paper. iPad is the ultimate blank canvas, with the horsepower and communication technologies necessary to power the vision, the multitouch interaction that drives our interactions and the sense of wonder instilled by a device built with such an obvious aura of triumphant joy.

What’s past is, indeed, prologue. Let’s write the first chapter of this exciting story together.

Apple's Tablet: The New "Medium"

Casey Ayers, President of MegatonApps, LLC, shares his thoughts on Apple’s impending Tablet announcement and why he believes it will replace the laptop’s current role for mainstream users, while the laptop continues to replace desktops at an even more rapid clip than before.